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These are the kinds of things that raise eyebrows at the Fed. The implication that this January report has for wage inflation is bothersome to the market and the Fed. - Cary Leahey Quotes

These are the kinds of things that raise eyebrows at the Fed. The implication that this January report has for wage inflation is bothersome to the market and the Fed.

The economy hit a brick wall in February and March. The risk of a recession is higher now than I thought it would have been six months ago. It's higher now than I thought it would have been six weeks ago. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The economy hit a brick wall in February and March. The risk of a recession is higher now than I thought it would have been six months ago. It's higher now than I thought it would have been six weeks ago.

Brick

On the prices paid index, you're down 50 points from the highs in October, which the bond market clearly likes. - Cary Leahey Quotes

On the prices paid index, you're down 50 points from the highs in October, which the bond market clearly likes.

Companies aren't afraid of being left in the dust; they're afraid that if they go first they'll be eaten by sharks, ... Everybody is standing in front of the turnstile, and nobody wants to go through. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Companies aren't afraid of being left in the dust; they're afraid that if they go first they'll be eaten by sharks, ... Everybody is standing in front of the turnstile, and nobody wants to go through.

The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease.

It's an impressive number. It just gives you more confidence that you'll get 4.0 percent plus (increases) in the fourth quarter and you'll hang in there through the first. - Cary Leahey Quotes

It's an impressive number. It just gives you more confidence that you'll get 4.0 percent plus (increases) in the fourth quarter and you'll hang in there through the first.

I don't see anything in the speech that is relevant to the near-term outlook. - Cary Leahey Quotes

I don't see anything in the speech that is relevant to the near-term outlook.

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting], - Cary Leahey Quotes

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting],

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting]. - Cary Leahey Quotes

It takes pressure off the Fed to hike interest rates more dramatically [than a quarter point] in August or put together a more forcefully worded statement next week [at its monetary policy meeting].

We're not talking about large sums of money. It is ironically only worth a couple of dollars to the Social Security check of the average American. They may be able to knock back a cold beer in a cheap bar. - Cary Leahey Quotes

We're not talking about large sums of money. It is ironically only worth a couple of dollars to the Social Security check of the average American. They may be able to knock back a cold beer in a cheap bar.

The Fed might skip (raising rates in) September -- but you have to remember that how the world looks today and how it looks on September 20 could be a lot different -- a lot worse or a lot better. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The Fed might skip (raising rates in) September -- but you have to remember that how the world looks today and how it looks on September 20 could be a lot different -- a lot worse or a lot better.

The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand.

The important thing is not whether the Fed can ease but the fact that people can even ask that question and some intelligent people say if the Fed raises rates in September, it would be a public relations disaster. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The important thing is not whether the Fed can ease but the fact that people can even ask that question and some intelligent people say if the Fed raises rates in September, it would be a public relations disaster.

Ask

It's hard to say whether a company like Home Depot would be better off with a falling unemployment rate and rising interest rates or vice versa. - Cary Leahey Quotes

It's hard to say whether a company like Home Depot would be better off with a falling unemployment rate and rising interest rates or vice versa.

That, combined with no job growth, makes it harder and harder for the Fed to pull the trigger in an election year. - Cary Leahey Quotes

That, combined with no job growth, makes it harder and harder for the Fed to pull the trigger in an election year.

It's hard to say whether a company like Home Depot would be better off with a falling unemployment rate and rising interest rates or vice versa, - Cary Leahey Quotes

It's hard to say whether a company like Home Depot would be better off with a falling unemployment rate and rising interest rates or vice versa,

Bond prices rose because the market was excited at the idea that the number of further rate hikes needed would not necessarily be large. The market is thinking that the Fed has two more rate hikes to go. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Bond prices rose because the market was excited at the idea that the number of further rate hikes needed would not necessarily be large. The market is thinking that the Fed has two more rate hikes to go.

Yet another survey of the economy is suggesting sustainable strength. Rates backed up a little because of this report, but you're treading water a bit because of payrolls data lurking on Friday. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Yet another survey of the economy is suggesting sustainable strength. Rates backed up a little because of this report, but you're treading water a bit because of payrolls data lurking on Friday.

This is one of the days when nobody is really going to care because the employment report was definitely weak. - Cary Leahey Quotes

This is one of the days when nobody is really going to care because the employment report was definitely weak.

I wouldn't make a lot out of those figures. - Cary Leahey Quotes

I wouldn't make a lot out of those figures.

It's certainly an impressive number, it's the lowest since early 2001. - Cary Leahey Quotes

It's certainly an impressive number, it's the lowest since early 2001.

I lean toward a half point instead of a quarter. The Fed wants to shore up confidence, to show that, unlike the European Central Bank, it feels your pain. - Cary Leahey Quotes

I lean toward a half point instead of a quarter. The Fed wants to shore up confidence, to show that, unlike the European Central Bank, it feels your pain.

[Yet while sentiments are that small-caps will rise as long as large-caps remain strong, some on Wall Street believe the bull market has a limited outlook for the near term.] Let me put it this way, the market is more likely to be down 10 percent (in a few months) than up 10 percent, ... But I don't look for any big correction. - Cary Leahey Quotes

[Yet while sentiments are that small-caps will rise as long as large-caps remain strong, some on Wall Street believe the bull market has a limited outlook for the near term.] Let me put it this way, the market is more likely to be down 10 percent (in a few months) than up 10 percent, ... But I don't look for any big correction.

One cannot deny that Katrina ironically may have had a positive effect on this index because of the big surge in orders. - Cary Leahey Quotes

One cannot deny that Katrina ironically may have had a positive effect on this index because of the big surge in orders.

Economists have to worry that if consumer sentiment remains depressed, spending could follow that down and you could have a much weaker outcome (in terms of economic growth. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Economists have to worry that if consumer sentiment remains depressed, spending could follow that down and you could have a much weaker outcome (in terms of economic growth.

A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now. - Cary Leahey Quotes

A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now.

If your period of turbulence is less than two or three months, ... then we can probably avoid a downturn. - Cary Leahey Quotes

If your period of turbulence is less than two or three months, ... then we can probably avoid a downturn.

There isn't much excitement in the July factory orders numbers. July is payback for a pretty good June and May but any way you slice it, your third-quarter capital spending slowed down quite a bit from previous quarters. - Cary Leahey Quotes

There isn't much excitement in the July factory orders numbers. July is payback for a pretty good June and May but any way you slice it, your third-quarter capital spending slowed down quite a bit from previous quarters.

The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road.

This is fairly strong stuff from the Fed. They are worried about the size of Treasury deficits and how that contributes to higher rates down the road. - Cary Leahey Quotes

This is fairly strong stuff from the Fed. They are worried about the size of Treasury deficits and how that contributes to higher rates down the road.

It's a dismal report. Unnerving. Is this the beginning of a one-two-three punch? - Cary Leahey Quotes

It's a dismal report. Unnerving. Is this the beginning of a one-two-three punch?

Ten years from now, they might both become first-tier numbers. But I doubt it. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Ten years from now, they might both become first-tier numbers. But I doubt it.

Doubt

The report is probably a shade on the weak side and it increases the chance that the Fed is more likely to stop raising rates at 4.75 percent at the middle of the year, rather than going higher. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The report is probably a shade on the weak side and it increases the chance that the Fed is more likely to stop raising rates at 4.75 percent at the middle of the year, rather than going higher.

The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent, - Cary Leahey Quotes

The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent,

The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent.

You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years, ... It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year. - Cary Leahey Quotes

You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years, ... It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year.

You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years. It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year. - Cary Leahey Quotes

You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years. It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year.

Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains, - Cary Leahey Quotes

Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains,

Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains. So as long as you have a great story on labor costs with productivity, you can't really have an inflation story. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains. So as long as you have a great story on labor costs with productivity, you can't really have an inflation story.

The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year, - Cary Leahey Quotes

The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year,

The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year.

Clearly Greenspan's luster has dimmed, and there's this worry that he's fired a lot of bullets and the bullets he has left won't do any good. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Clearly Greenspan's luster has dimmed, and there's this worry that he's fired a lot of bullets and the bullets he has left won't do any good.

It was one of the biggest surprises that I've seen in some time. - Cary Leahey Quotes

It was one of the biggest surprises that I've seen in some time.

But I would not treat it as a sign that consumer spending is falling apart and that we will have a weak first half of the year. - Cary Leahey Quotes

But I would not treat it as a sign that consumer spending is falling apart and that we will have a weak first half of the year.

Unit labor costs were up 3.5 percent which, if sustained, would suggest increased labor cost pressures down the road. - Cary Leahey Quotes

Unit labor costs were up 3.5 percent which, if sustained, would suggest increased labor cost pressures down the road.

Labor

But ... the trend in unit labor costs is still declining and I would argue that the market and the Fed will say that this is a one-time surge. - Cary Leahey Quotes

But ... the trend in unit labor costs is still declining and I would argue that the market and the Fed will say that this is a one-time surge.

Labor

The problem in this report for the bond market is the big increase in hourly earnings and the decline in the unemployment rate. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The problem in this report for the bond market is the big increase in hourly earnings and the decline in the unemployment rate.

The bond market is treating the drop in the unemployment rate and the increase in hourly earnings as two reasons why the Fed will have to hike rates. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The bond market is treating the drop in the unemployment rate and the increase in hourly earnings as two reasons why the Fed will have to hike rates.

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher.

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week, at least in terms of forecasting GDP. On the inflation front, the Fed got a little more breathing room. - Cary Leahey Quotes

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week, at least in terms of forecasting GDP. On the inflation front, the Fed got a little more breathing room.

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